The Risk of Giving Up on Justin Fields
I am one of the few remaining proponents in Bear fandom of keeping Justin Fields. Local Chicago media are sure he will always be mediocre at best and that the last step to a Bears Super Bowl dynasty is drafting Caleb Williams – whose status as “generational” and “transcendent” grows with every workout he skips.
I don’t think where Fields is now is near his ceiling, it’s where he is after three years of disfunction and inexperience around him. Unless the Bears radically change how they handle quarterbacks no one will reach their potential in Chicago. The Bears brought in an entire new offensive staff, so things might be changing. If they are going to do the necessary things for the position, they should continue with Fields and pick up his 5th year option – which is not expensive in today’s NFL QB world. If other teams really believe Williams is as generational as local media say, there will be very good value for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
People arguing against keeping Fields point to the entirety of the 40 games he started in his first three years – a stretch that included year one under a coaching staff and front office destined to be fired and year two in which Ryan Poles deconstructed the team and was actively trying to lose games. It also included the disastrous beginning to year three when the offensive staff abandoned all the things Fields does well and made him try to play entirely from the pocket – despite the fact that horrendous line-play often left him no pocket to play from.
Before walking away from Fields and betting their jobs on Caleb Williams – who has many of the same “flaws” as Fields - the Bears should look at how Fields played in his ten starts after the team hit rock bottom in Kansas City in week three. Below are Fields’ stats from those ten games, including what they would be if extended over a 17-game season. I took one liberty - I did not include the two Hail Mary interceptions in Cleveland – not because they were Hail Marys but because they both bounced- the first off the ground and the second off Darnell Mooney’s lap.
|
Justin Fields |
Final 10 |
Full 17 |
NFL Rank |
|
Pass Attempts |
282 |
479 |
19 |
|
Pass Completions |
176 |
299 |
19 |
|
Comp % |
62.4 |
62.4 |
28 |
|
Pass Yards |
2,036 |
3,461 |
17 |
|
Pass TDs |
13 |
22 |
15 |
|
TD % |
4.6 |
4.6 |
15 |
|
INT |
3 |
5 |
35th most |
|
INT % |
1.1 |
1.1 |
2 |
|
Yards per Attempt |
7.2 |
7.2 |
15 |
|
Passer Rating |
95.1 |
95.1 |
13 |
|
Rush Attempts |
100 |
170 |
1-QBs |
|
Rush Yards |
548 |
932 |
2-QBs |
|
Yards per Rush |
5.5 |
5.5 |
3 |
|
Rush TDs |
3 |
5 |
5-QBs |
|
Fumbles/Lost |
7/3 |
12/5 |
3/7 most |
|
Team Points per game |
23.7 |
23.7 |
10 |
These are not All-Pro numbers. But for a third-year QB still working under poor offensive coaching and with limited experienced talent around him, they are not the numbers of a QB who cannot progress to a championship level under new direction. Fields’ progress from year one through year three says he can be that QB. Here is his progression, all prorated to 17 games (2023=final 10 starts):
|
Justin Fields |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
|
Pass Attempts |
378 |
359 |
479 |
|
Pass Completions |
222 |
217 |
299 |
|
Comp % |
58.9 |
60.4 |
62.4 |
|
Pass Yards |
2,618 |
2,533 |
3,461 |
|
Pass TDs |
10 |
19 |
22 |
|
TD % |
2.6 |
5.3 |
4.6 |
|
INT |
14 |
11 |
5 |
|
INT % |
3.7 |
3.1 |
1.1 |
|
Yards per Attempt |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.2 |
|
Passer Rating |
73.2 |
85.2 |
95.1 |
|
Rush Attempts |
100 |
180 |
170 |
|
Rush Yards |
588 |
1,292 |
932 |
|
Yards per Rush |
5.9 |
7.2 |
5.5 |
|
Rush TDs |
3 |
9 |
5 |
|
Fumbles/Lost |
17/5 |
18/3 |
12/5 |
|
Team Points per game |
18.3 |
19.2 |
23.7 |
So, Ryan Poles has to decide where his biggest risk lies – with Justin Fields or Caleb Williams.
*Sean Sullivan is a Guest Contributor to Chicago GM.
